In the Harry Potter universe – whose creator is now defined by her gender-bender takes – the number seven is pivotal. That’s why Lord Voldemort decided to create seven Horcruxes that would have made him immortal, if his sidekick hadn’t fancied the mother of a scrawny git. Seven is a number that frequently recurs in fiction and non-fiction. There are seven kingdoms in Game of Thrones, seven colours in the rainbow, seven musical notes ( svars), and the number seven graces the backs of iconic sportsmen like MS Dhoni and Eric Cantona.
The number seven is equally significant in US elections, where seven swing states can determine the outcome. While swing states may change, for the purposes of this piece, the seven are: Arizona (11), Georgia (16), Michigan (15), Nevada (6), North Carolina (16), Pennsylvania (19), and Wisconsin (10).
A candidate needs a majority while battling for 538 electoral college votes. Regardless of the margin of victory, whoever wins a state takes the full electoral college vote count. For example, in Arizona in 2020, Joe Biden won by just 10,457 votes but secured all 11 electoral college votes from the state. It’s possible to win more votes overall, as Clinton did in 2016, and still receive fewer electoral college votes. As NPR ’s Domenico Montanaro noted, “44,000 votes in Georgia, Arizona, and Wisconsin” separated Trump and Biden from a tie in the electoral college. Hillary Clinton famously won the popular vote in 2016 but lost in the electoral college.
Essentially, these seven states could decide the fate of the realm.
Since 1988, 20 states and Washington, DC have consistently voted for the same party in every presidential election, with only a few seeing close battles. Trump’s unexpected victory in 2016 was due to his ability to swing several key states that had previously voted for Democrats, earning him 304 electoral votes to Hillary's 227. Meanwhile, Biden’s ability to reclaim some of these states was crucial to his victory, where he defeated Trump 306-232.
Now a disclaimer: given the unprecedented nature of this election – with a candidate shoehorned in at the last moment after her predecessor lost his bearings, and a former POTUS who has survived two assassination attempts – all bets are off.
With fluctuating polls, any state with less than a 5% gap could be in play. A recent NYT-Sienna College poll suggested Trump’s fortunes were looking up in the so-called Sun Belt swing states of Arizona, North Carolina, and Georgia. However, these polls were taken before the revelations about Trump’s ‘black Nazi’ Mark Robinson’s candid thoughts on a porn forum, which could reverse Trump’s gains in North Carolina.
Here's a quick look at each key state:
Overall, Trump and Harris are neck-and-neck in several polls. According to 538, Harris is nationally leading by 2.7 BPS. In the Game of Thrones, to sit on the Iron Throne, you had to wade through eight seasons of incest, bloodletting, politically chicanery and lots of speeches. It was a rather messy affair at times. Hopefully, it won't get that messy on November 5.
The Top 10 Stories:
You may also like
Odisha govt to test quality of ghee used to prepare 'prasad' at Jagannath temple
Strictly's Nick Knowles issues plea to fans as future on BBC show in jeopardy after nasty injury
Qatar's Emir calls Israeli war in Gaza a 'genocide'
Keir's speech shifts conference mood from doom and gloom to more hopeful (soon)