Trump's sweeping tariffs echo 1930s trade blunder, says Nate Silver

Statistician and political analyst Nate Silver has sounded the alarm on President Donald Trump's sweeping new tariffs, warning that the aggressive trade policy could inflict deep damage on the US economy — and that Wall Street is already bracing for the impact.

In a scathing post published Friday, Silver said the tariff package — which hits almost all of America’s major trading partners — echoes the disastrous Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930. But unlike the Great Depression-era law, Trump’s tariffs are “far more expansive and arbitrarily applied,” Silver wrote.

He cited Vietnam as an example, a country now facing a 46% tariff despite being a key US ally in balancing China’s influence in Asia. “Vietnam is a strategic partner with low tariffs on American goods,” he noted, questioning the logic behind such blanket moves.

Silver pointed to a sharp dip in major stock indices as a clear sign that investors are alarmed. He dismissed claims that the sell-off was triggered by unrelated economic concerns, saying sectors like consumer staples and cyclical industries — closely tied to everyday consumer spending — were hit hardest.

“The stock market clearly thinks Trump’s tariffs will eat Main Street alive,” Silver said, using the title of his piece. He argued the moves could raise prices for consumers, disrupt supply chains, and ultimately tip the economy into recession.

While the White House insists the tariffs are about fairness and protecting American industries, Silver’s message is clear: The markets aren’t buying it — and neither should the public.