Jammu & Kashmir Exit Poll: NC-Congress Ahead But May Fall Short; 3 Possibilities

The exit polls for the recently concluded Assembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir have predicted that the National Conference-Congress alliance may have a lead. However, the polls have predicted that they may fall just a little short of majority with the BJP performing well in the Jammu region.

These elections are crucial because they are taking place after a gap of 10 years and they are also the first election in J&K after it was bifurcated and made into a Union Territory.

According to the India Today-CVoter Exit Poll, the NC-Congress alliance could win 40-48 seats while the BJP could win 27-32 seats in the 95 member Assembly. Five out of these seats are nominated by the Lieutenant Governor. To win a majority, a party or alliance would need the support of 48 MLAs.

The India TV-Axis MyIndia exit poll has given 40 seats to the NC-Congress alliance, 29 to the BJP and 21 to others.

NC-Congress Does Well in the Valley, BJP to Sweep Jammu

The exit polls have predicted a split verdict between the two regions in the Union Territory, with the BJP likely to sweep Jammu and the NC-Congress alliance doing well in Kashmir.

According to the CVoter survey, the BJP is set to win 27-31 seats in Jammu, well ahead of the NC-Congress alliance at 11-15. If this gets reflected in the results, then it would mean that BJP has continued its dominance of the Hindu-dominated Jammu region while the NC-Congress alliance may have done well in the Muslim pockets within Jammu, such as Doda, Kishtwar and Rajouri.

The India TV-Axis My India exit poll also has a similar prediction, giving 29 seats to the BJP in Jammu and around a dozen to the NC-Congress alliance.

In terms of vote share, the India Today-CVoter survey, BJP is likely to get 41 percent votes in Jammu against 37 percent for the NC-Congress alliance.

As far as the Kashmir Valley is concerned, the CVoter exit poll has given 29-33 seats to the NC-Congress alliance, followed by 6-10 to the JKPDP, 6-10 to Others and 0-1 to the BJP.

Axis MyIndia's prediction is on similar lines.

CVoter's vote prediction for the Kashmir Valley is 41 percent for the NC-Congress alliance, 39 percent for Others, 17 percent for the JKPDP and 3 percent for BJP.

The high vote share for Others may make the situation in Kashmir unpredictable as the category includes candidates aligned to the Jamaat-e-Islami and Engineer Rashid's Awami Ittehad Party on one hand and parties like People's Conference and Apni Party which are considered BJP-leaning.

However, one clear trend is the huge decline in the JKPDP's vote share.

What Happens Next?

A party or alliance needs 48 seats in the 95 member Assembly to form a government. Now, since 5 are nominated by the L-G, they may have to be calculated as being with the BJP.

1. Options for BJP

So for instance if the BJP is getting around 30 seats as predicted by both the surveys, it may go up to 35 along with the nominated MLAs. The challenge for the BJP is that it would need at least a dozen more unaligned MLAs from the Kashmir Valley to come to its side.

While Altaf Bukhari's Apni Party and Sajad Lone's People's Conference may still be open to have some kind of post-poll tie-up with the BJP, the same can't be said about Engineer Rashid's party or the Jamaat-aligned candidates.

Then there is the JKPDP which is part of the INDIA bloc nationally but it has been left out of the NC-Congress alliance in Jammu and Kashmir.

The BJP may have to do something unorthodox - by making a senior Kashmir-based leader the CM so that it becomes easier for unaligned parties to come around.

2. Options for NC-Congress

However, if the numbers go the way these two polls are predicting then the NC-Congress alliance may have a better chance of forming the government. The upper end of CVoter's prediction is that the NC-Congress could just about touch the majority mark.

If they fall short by a few seats, they can reach out to the JKPDP which at least technically is part of the INDIA bloc. The People's Conference, too, is said to have kept its options open as have some Independents.

But it remains to be seen if the NC-Congress will reach out to Engineer Rashid and the Jamaat aligned candidates. It would especially be tricky for the Congress as it may give the BJP a point against it at the national level.

3. Complete Realignment

The third possibility would be a political realignment - of the NC and BJP coming together. The tradeoff could be the NC walking out of the INDIA bloc on one hand and the BJP expediting full statehood for Jammu and Kashmir.