Former NITI Aayog CEO Amitabh Kant has delivered a cautionary note that the global trade landscape is undergoing a deep and irreversible transformation, far beyond the headline-grabbing tariff wars. “This is not just about tariffs,” said Kant. “There is a reconfiguration and resetting of the world economy underway — a seismic shift with profound consequences.”
Kant’s remarks come at a time when rising geopolitical tensions, a fractured multilateral trading system, and technological disruption are converging to reshape global economic dynamics.
Return of great power conflict
According to Kant, the post-World War II era of global stability has come to an end. “The war in Ukraine marks the re-emergence of big power conflict in Europe, where both the First and Second World Wars were fought,” he noted. The United States, despite President Biden’s early optimism, has been unable to broker peace.
Simultaneously, ongoing tensions in the Middle East and the looming prospects of conflict in Asia, particularly involving China, have intensified fears of prolonged instability.
Supply chain disruptions
Kant said that global supply chains are breaking down and free trade is no longer the rule book, leading to a shifting economic order. “Free trade lifted millions out of poverty in China and India over the past four decades, but the very countries that once preached open markets are now turning protectionist,” he said.
The United States declared the “end of the multilateral world trading organisation,” opting instead for bilateral deals and a flat tariff regime. In 2024 alone, the US trade deficit reached $1.2 trillion, with China accounting for 24 percent, the European Union (EU) 20 percent, and Mexico 15 percent of the total, Kant revealed while addressing the AIMA’s 10th National Leadership Conclave in New Delhi on Tuesday.
Trump’s tariff policy has sent shockwaves through the global economy, contributing to a staggering $6 trillion loss in US domestic value. While China continues to face stiff tariffs, it still exported $440 billion worth of goods to the US, importing just $144 billion in return, he added.
Opportunity in crisis
“The breakdown of old economic structures opens new doors. India has a chance to emerge as a resilient, alternative manufacturing and digital powerhouse,” he emphasised.
With global players questioning long-term manufacturing dependence on China, India could benefit from strategic supply chain diversification — but it must move swiftly and decisively.
( Originally published on Apr 15, 2025 )
Kant’s remarks come at a time when rising geopolitical tensions, a fractured multilateral trading system, and technological disruption are converging to reshape global economic dynamics.
Return of great power conflict
According to Kant, the post-World War II era of global stability has come to an end. “The war in Ukraine marks the re-emergence of big power conflict in Europe, where both the First and Second World Wars were fought,” he noted. The United States, despite President Biden’s early optimism, has been unable to broker peace.
Simultaneously, ongoing tensions in the Middle East and the looming prospects of conflict in Asia, particularly involving China, have intensified fears of prolonged instability.
Supply chain disruptions
Kant said that global supply chains are breaking down and free trade is no longer the rule book, leading to a shifting economic order. “Free trade lifted millions out of poverty in China and India over the past four decades, but the very countries that once preached open markets are now turning protectionist,” he said.
The United States declared the “end of the multilateral world trading organisation,” opting instead for bilateral deals and a flat tariff regime. In 2024 alone, the US trade deficit reached $1.2 trillion, with China accounting for 24 percent, the European Union (EU) 20 percent, and Mexico 15 percent of the total, Kant revealed while addressing the AIMA’s 10th National Leadership Conclave in New Delhi on Tuesday.
Trump’s tariff policy has sent shockwaves through the global economy, contributing to a staggering $6 trillion loss in US domestic value. While China continues to face stiff tariffs, it still exported $440 billion worth of goods to the US, importing just $144 billion in return, he added.
Opportunity in crisis
“The breakdown of old economic structures opens new doors. India has a chance to emerge as a resilient, alternative manufacturing and digital powerhouse,” he emphasised.
Spoke today at AIMA’s 10th National Leadership Conclave on why India must turn global volatility into strategic opportunity—by becoming the leading hub for deep tech and clean tech manufacturing.
— Amitabh Kant (@amitabhk87) April 15, 2025
As major powers turn inward, India stands tall—with scale, resilience, and… pic.twitter.com/BnAsiW0tta
With global players questioning long-term manufacturing dependence on China, India could benefit from strategic supply chain diversification — but it must move swiftly and decisively.
( Originally published on Apr 15, 2025 )
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