Spain floods are wake-up call showing how dangerous extreme rainfall can be

Events like the floods in Eastern Spain used to be rare but unfortunately are now becoming worryingly far too frequent. Dr Friederike Otto, Lead of World Weather Attribution at the Centre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London - one of Europe’s leading climate scientists - said there was “no doubt about it. These explosive downpours were intensified by climate change.”

As the world heats up - driven primarily by burning fossil fuels - every fraction of a degree means the atmosphere can hold more moisture, leading to heavier bursts of rainfall.

These deadly flash floods occurred at just 1.3C of global warming. Events like this will be more extreme and frequent if the UN’s most recent warning that we are on track to experience up to 3.1°C of warming by the end of the century is correct.

This summer Spain also sweltered in a heatwave with temperatures over 40C which baked the soil and reduced its ability to absorb water, amplifying the impact of torrential rains like this. Warming sea temperatures are now also driving strong wind storms in the Mediterranean region.

The disaster is also a wake up call to how dangerous extreme rainfall can be, even when well predicted. While there are programmes to ensure areas are prepared for earthquakes and tsunami, there is little focus on flash floods, which can occur anywhere. Scientists have been warning for years that the climate crisis will lead to more intense rainfall. The tragic consequences of these floods show that we have a long way to go to prepare for this kind of event, and worse, in future.

Europe is the fastest-warming continent and its temperatures are rising at roughly twice the global average, making intensifying climate extremes — heat stress with record temperatures, wildfires, heat waves and flash floods - far too common. In September Storm Boris brought catastrophic flooding to part of central Europe killing at least 24 and forcing thousands to flee their homes. Just earlier this month rain also ravaged parts of Italy and central France.

Next month Azerbaijan will host COP29, the UN climate summit, where nations will attempt to deliver the urgent cuts in fossil fuel burning that scientists say are imperative to avoid the most destructive impacts of climate breakdown.

It is essential that the global leaders who attend not only agree to reduce their reliance on burning fossil fuels but this time they commit to an end date to completely phase them out and replace them with renewable energy sources. Every day this is delayed, the more severe and more frequent weather events like Spain’s tragic floods will become.

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